Friday, April 19, 2013

Let's play the "What If" game: Padres Edition.

As fans, you probably talk about a lot of "what if" scenarios with your friends, most likely a few unrealistic feats that are fun to joke around with while playing video games and eating leftover pizza.

But with the Padres, the entire season can be said to be based off of a "what if" scenario" and I just wanted to point out a few big ones that Padres are going to be facing in the next few months.

"What if Edison Volquez doesn't turn his season around"
This is a highly likely scenario. Volquez has been serving up batting practice so far. So far, he has started off 0-3 with a 11.68 ERA (ouch). It is not like this is a new thing neither. Last year he went 11-11 with a 4.14 ERA and career 4.64 ERA lifetime. Seeing this, it is not like he about to hit his prime and start dominating. A guy with a mediocre fastball, terrible mechanics, and can hit his spots as well as Matt Kemp's hitting this early part of the year.

Is that Edison Volquez career I see?

Solution? Drop him out of the rotation. You have two arms in Andrew Cashner and Anthony Bass who are licking their chops to get back in the starting rotation. Bass so far has had some success in his 10.2 innings showing a 3.38 ERA and striking out 10, almost a strike out an inning. He has had struggles as a starter, just look at last year, but I have more faith in him than our so-called Opening Day starter.  Cashner as well could be a viable option. Once he gets back in the rhythm of things, I think he could be an effective starter. We saw great flashes of him last year as a starter, picking up some wins. It would be nice to give him a chance and maybe make the argument that the Anthony Rizzo trade was not a complete failure on Padres management. 100 MPH fastball is something worth using often.

"What if Chase Headley doesn't perform as well as last year"
Well, even though as I fan, I would like him to do so, I do not think he will put up similar numbers, but I still think he will be good. When looking up his fly ball tracks from last year, almost 25% of fly balls he hit left the yard, an extremely high number for any MLB player. Also, he may take a few weeks to get himself back fully from injury, so basically, the first month is a wash.

Although, the batters in front of him have been playing well. Chris Denorfia is turning himself into a every day starter and one of the few Padres who can hit .300, mix that in with a Everth Cabrera who has been swinging well and a Will Venable who has been able to get on base, Headley may have a lot of runners to drive in in front of him, so the RBI totals will be there. If he can get some power out of Yonder Alonso, Kyle Blanks and  Yasmani Grandal when he returns, maybe he will have some protection in the lineup.

Anyways, if he doesn't perform, he will most likely stay a Padre because his trade stock will plummet, and if he does, well, lets just hope management keeps their promise.

"What if Cameron Maybin never gets good again"
Unfortunately, this could be a sad reality for the Padres. The Padres "Player of the Year" in 2011 to batting just over .200 in 2012, to not even sniffing .100 batting average while obtaining an early wrist injury. It makes me cringe every time I remind myself we signed him 5yr/$25, a really premature move considering he only had one good year to go off of. I know the guy is 26 years old and still can hit his prime, but I only see him as a defensive factor and someone who swings for the fences but comes up short. If only he could play like his doppelganger, Dexter Fowler, who is becoming a force in Colorado.

What is Maybin doing in a Rockies uniform?


Maybin also is going to have a hard time finding any time on the field if Kyle Blanks really does come back for good the the bigs. With the power Blanks provides, the consistency of Denorfia and the inability to sit Quentin, Maybin might as well see himself as the 5th option in the outfield for the Padres.

"What if Denorfia plays like this all year?"
Answer: He will. The guy is a career .284 hitter and has become an instant spark plug and reliable bat in the lineup. As one of my favorite players since he has come to the Padres, I am really pushing for him to continue his early success as a full time player instead of someone who splits time with Venable in right. It would be nice to find a surprise bat in the lineup.

Just think of the lineup if players play up to potential:
Cabrera
Denorfia
Headley
Alonso
Quentin
Blanks/Venable
Hundley
Gyorko

That is a lot of power potential to hit balls into shorter Petco fences and make pitchers actually think twice about the Padres lineup even without Grandal. I am seeing a few guys who have 20+ home run potential.

"What if the Padres turn it around?"
They can. I really, truly believe that they can. They just need to get more out of their pitching staff. All of these early exits by starting pitching has really taken a toll on the bullpen and logging a lot of extra innings on them. I feel bad for a guy like Thad Weber who's sole purpose was to come up and eat innings for the big league club, only to be sent back down. If we can get pitching like we did in LA and string a full quality starts together, maybe, just maybe, the Padres can push for a .500 record. I am sold that the Padres have a good lineup who can score runs, just ask Papa John's, who has been dishing out 40% coupons all year because of it. If you can combine the pitching with the hitting, the Padres can be an underrated force against overrated teams.

"I got you, Padres fans"


The Padres aren't as bad as their record shows. They are just struck with the injury bug and playing to what they are expected to play at. Remember the second half last year? All the same pieces are here, I know they can play like that. Lets hope they can know that for themselves.

Go Padres!


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