Fantasy Friars: You're Already Dead (Metaphorically)

As Spring Training begets Opening Day begets "10 games back in July isn't that insurmountable", most baseball fans will soon face the crushing realization that their fantasy team(s) suck just as much as the actual teams they support. Which will hurt worse? The possibility of losing ground in the standings to a Phillies' fan with a team name of "Young Love" or watching a professional sports team falter to the actual Delmon-Michael super-combo?

Your fantasy baseball team and its witty name: Lord Galzas
Cold-hard reality: Kenshiro

As a San Diego fan who plays with like-minded (read: enlightened) San Diego fans, the first option shouldn't present itself, while the latter is all too likely to rear its ugly heads considering Philadelphia's success at Petco.

That aside, fantasy baseball has evolved from a competitive game among friends to a million-dollar revenue stream for several of the largest engines, not to mention the member benefits sites offer as evaluation tools, prospect guides, etc.

If you are unable to afford the service, don't fret - most armchair GMs (read: everyone) will offer you advice on your team as you draft in real-time! This service is both highly-annoying and free of charge. You don't even have to opt-in!

DBakAtak69: drfating justin bumpton b4 cody ross? wow, gl lol!

XxSephirothxAngelsxLovexX: I bet he doesn't even know about his home-road splits.

While I am no baseball expert (and something far less than a fantasy baseball whiz), I thought I'd present a few Padres' players that look to be sleepers or over-hyped based on their current average draft position. Stats and drafting recommendations will be based on a 12-team league with standard scoring (R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG for position players, W/SV/K/ERA/WHIP for pitchers). Also none of that keeper or auction-draft business, because my friends are curmudgeons. 

Chase Headley (3B) - 2012: (95/31/115/17/.286); 2013 ADP: 53.7

Headley's 2012 was one for the ages, both for the down-trodden San Diego fan and for the fantasy baseball player who delved the third-base depths and found a gem. Headley's first-half was pedestrian, though still useful considering league-wide production at 3B: 39/8/42/10/.267. in 315 PA. It was his second-half that vaulted him up the draft boards and helped to capture fantasy league championships: 56/23/70/7/.308 in 289 PAs.

The question on draft-day is which Headley are you buying? There is strong evidence to suggest that Headley will regress: a 30.3% HR/FB in the second-half shows that Headley was probably a little lucky on fly balls leaving the park (generally, league average is 10%, although parks and players can influence this). To counter that notion, there have been multiple reports of Phil Plantier remaking the swing of The Savior to generate more loft and back-spin (both more conducive to driving the ball). In addition, with the ball park fences coming both in and down, many of Headley's prior home runs marked "Just Enough" by ESPN Home Run Tracker (he had five JE or JE/L home runs at Petco last year, another measure of "lucky" home runs) could very well be negated.

Headley will look to add a Cy Young to his bountiful trophy case this season.

Ultimately, I think it's fair to expect the home run numbers to decrease by as much as 20% due to regression, but Headley still provides a decent value in the AVG department, can net you some stolen bases when he's not mashing homers, and plays in the three-hole in a lineup that was playing surprisingly well in the second-half, so there's reason to believe the runs scored and runs batted in will still be among the league leaders at the position. 

Headley is currently ranked 7th among 3B and looks to be going around the middle of the fifth-round. 3B does have a little depth behind him (Ramirez, Lawrie, Sandoval), so don't be tempted to grab him too early if your league has an early run of 3B. That said, if you're hanging around the end of the fourth-round and looking for a high-floor, high-ceiling third baseman, you could do a lot worse than Headley.

Overall ADP analysis: Slightly Underrated to spot-on.

Huston Street (P) - 2012: (2/23/47/1.85/0.72); 2013 ADP: 187.0

Street was oft-injured in 2012, but still was able to make the most of his thirty-nine innings with the club. Street missed time with a calf injury, a lat injury, and was shut down at the end of the season with a bicep injury, so there should be little if any drop-off in 2013 production from his three DL vacations in 2012. 

Hey, still hot.

Street is well-entrenched in his closer role at the moment, and the front office seems to have given him their approval with a contract extension. Currently being plucked around the midpoint of the sixteenth round, Street will pad everything but wins when he's healthy, but take heed: Street has made 15 DL trips since 2005, missing a total of 298 games of baseball. Take a flyer on Luke Gregerson (currently undrafted by ADP) or understand that you'll probably be scouring the waiver wire partway through the season.

SD's closer is being taken mid-sixteenth round, and is the sixteenth closer being taken off the board. Seems like fair value.

Overall ADP Analysis: Spot-on.

Cameron Maybin (CF) - 2012: (67/8/45/26/.243); 2013 ADP: 245.0

Maybin parlayed a successful 2011 into a five-year contract extension, but his 2012 didn't quite live up to his first year in San Diego. 

A classic. Episode one, that is.

Maybin dropped almost uniformly across the board. The runs scored, SB, and batting average plummeted, and a marginal increase in RBIs wasn't the plan most players had when drafting him. Upon closer examination, Maybin's season becomes even more befuddling: he was more than twice as effective batting at home than on the road, he showed a reverse platoon-split, he cut down his strikeouts and increased his contact, yet seemed to do worse than years past. 

Maybin, much like Headley had a second-half turnaround spurned by a change in mechanics: he rid himself of a leg kick that was disrupting his swing and his average started looking like 2011 again (.283 in 219 PAs). Curiously, the runs and SB did not return, but this could be explained by being slotted lower in the lineup as well a relaxed mentality on the base paths with an offense that was churning. 

Maybin is currently sitting pretty as the 69th-drafted outfielder, taken about mid-way through the twenty-first round. Unless Maybin really impresses this spring and is projected higher into the lineup, I'd say his ADP is about right in-line for a speedy outfielder with low-power and moderate contact.

Overall ADP Analysis: Spot-on.

We at TPP hope you found this draft-day knowledge valuable, or at the very least, entertaining. Just remember who to make the check out to when you win big in your money league.